Makroekonomia

The Fitch rating agency has maintained Poland’s credit rating at A-, but downgraded its outlook from stable to negative. During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, multiple Russian drones violated Polish airspace. Some were shot down by the military. Market reaction to these developments was limited.

MPC reduced its policy rates by 25bp to 4.75% in September, in line with expectations. The move was again characterized as an “adjustment,” highlighting the Council’s cautious stance despite inflation now being assessed as durably at target.

Despite a lack of noticeable fiscal consolidation, a positive inflationary surprise in August and recent dovish labour market data convince us to revise our baseline scenario and to factor in a rate cut by the Polish MPC already at the September meeting, with a significant likelihood of a similar move in November.

Poland’s GDP growth accelerated to 3.4% y/y in 2q25, driven by stronger consumption and resilient investments. Growth momentum places Poland among top EU performers. Monthly indicators for July point to a robust start of 3q25.

Despite June’s moderation in credit expansion in Poland, multiple indicators signal a forthcoming rebound in lending activity, underpinned by lower interest rates and improving macroeconomic backdrop.