CEE Macro Weekly: Lending rebound ahead

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TOP MACRO THEME(S):

• Lending activity awakens (p. 3) – Despite June’s moderation in credit expansion in Poland, multiple indicators signal a forthcoming rebound in lending activity, underpinned by lower interest rates and improving macroeconomic backdrop.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

• CZE: CNB left interest rates unchanged with the two-week repo rate remaining at 3.50% since May 2025. CNB Governor A.Michl stated that prevailing economic conditions do not warrant a reduction in rates. In its latest macroeconomic projection, the CNB upgraded GDP growth forecast to 2.6% for both 2025 and 2026, from 2.0-2.1% previously. The headline inflation trajectory was revised up by 0.1pp, to 2.6% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. In our assessment, the likelihood of no rate cuts this year is rising. The CNB’s decision was supported by the flash CPI reading for July, which showed inflation easing to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y, though remaining above target. Both goods and services contributed to the softer print. The decline in energy prices moderated, while core inflation excluding energy recorded the sharpest disinflation.
• ROM: NBR maintained its policy rate at 6.50%, in line with market expectations. Rates have been held at this level for the past year. The central bank remains cautious about inflationary pressures in the economy.
• HUN: CPI inflation eased to 4.3% y/y in July from 4.6% y/y in June, and was higher than expected. The trajectory of core inflation (down to 4.0% y/y from 4.4% y/y) is consistent with the MNB’s projections, suggesting no change in the monetary policy stance for now. Looking ahead, headline inflation may rise slightly in the coming months, but is expected to resume a downward trend in winter, potentially opening the way for an interest rate cut.
• POL: K.Nawrocki was sworn in as the President of the Republic of Poland. In his inaugural address, he pledged to pursue a policy of sustainable economic development, reiterated his opposition to raising the statutory retirement age, and ruled out the adoption of the euro.
• POL: The government plans to launch a Personal Investment Account (OKI) from mid-2026, modelled on Sweden’s ISK. New investments up to PLN 100k (including PLN 25k in deposits and bonds) would be exempt from capital gains tax; amounts above this threshold would face an annual 0.8-0.9% levy. The first-year direct fiscal cost is estimated at PLN 250–300m, with the ministry projecting inflows to the scheme of app. PLN 100bn within 2-3 years.
• POL: According to the MinLab estimate, the registered unemployment rate edged up to 5.4% in July, well above expectations. The number of unemployed rose by roughly 34k m/m - the worst July reading since 2000. The ministry attributed the increase to regulatory changes easing registration procedures, as well as the introduction of new activation support measures.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

• The key event this week will be the first estimate of Poland’s GDP for 2q25, where we expect growth to accelerate to 3.5% y/y.
• In addition, we will receive regional balance of payments data for June as well as July inflation figures from Poland and Romania. Unlike in other CEEs inflation is expected to accelerate in Romania, driven by regulatory changes