Makroekonomia

2024 ended on a low note in Poland. The data set for December brought some disappointment, yet we maintain our expectation of GDP growth acceleration in 4q24.

Geopolitics is the key source of uncertainty for 2025, with its growing impact on the global economy — affecting world trade, inflation, and central bank policies. Against the backdrop of this global voyage into the unknown, Poland appears to be following a well-defined and relatively stable course toward lower inflation, stronger and more balanced economic growth, addressing structural weaknesses, and seizing strategic opportunities.

Inflation data in December surprised on a positive note, with the exception of Hungary. The central banks of Poland and Romania adopted a hawkish stance and confirmed that they are the least inclined in the CEE region to lower interest rates.

With this issue we switch to a new format in which we cover macro news not only from Poland but also from Czechia, Hungary and Romania. Our crystal ball tells us that 2025 will be marked by accelerating economic activity in the CEE, while disinflation will continue on a bumpy track. Politics will be one of the main topics of 2025, possibly outshining resumption of monetary easing.