Makroekonomia

As good as it gets - 2025 has started surprisingly well in the Polish economy, which combined with an acceleration in GDP growth towards the end of 2024, allows us to be optimistic about 2025. That said, we stick to our forecast of 3.5% growth in 2025. The coming week will bring PMI readings in Poland and abroad, as well as a preliminary reading of CPI inflation in the euro area. The ECB will decide on interest rates (we assume a 25bp cut). In the US, the spotlight will focus on the labour market – ADP report and NFP data.

The beginning of the year was quite good in the Polish economy even despite some disappointment regarding the labour market statistics. Regional focus next week will be on the MNB meeting on Tuesday. We expect no change in interest rates, in line with the forward guidance.

CPI figures for January surprised on the upside across CEE, supporting the wait-and-see approach in monetary policy.

The CNB made a hawkish cut, while the NBP remains in the hawkish ‘higher for longer’ mode. Macro calendar next week includes among others inflation data from the CEE.

Full year GDP readings in CEE-3 brought mixed results, with a slight positive surprise in Poland and a relatively disappointing reading for Hungary. Next week our attention will focus on the MPC meetings in Poland (Wed.) and Czechia (Thur.).