Makroekonomia

Last week brought results of the first round of presidential election in Poland and of the second round in Romania. Both outcomes came out as surprises compared to the pre-election polls.

On Sunday, second round of presidential elections will take place in Romania, while the first round will be held in Poland. Meanwhile Poland's GDP growth in 1q25 exceeded expectations, reaching 3.2% y/y, only slightly below the 3.4% y/y recorded in 4q24.

Despite a relatively hawkish tone accompanying a non-standard scale of the NBP rate reduction in May, the message from the MPC supports scenario of further monetary easing in 2025.

IMF has slashed its 2025 GDP forecasts for the CEE region due to global trade disruptions. Meanwhile CEE countries ended 2024 with high fiscal deficits, driven by defense spending, social commitments, and slowing revenue growth. Plans for 2025 point to continued high deficits, especially in Romania and Poland.

The overview of possible US tariffs implications for the CEE points to relatively higher exposure of Hungary and Czechia, however, moderate compared to the euro area. Estimated effects on near-term GDP growth range from -0.4 to -0.2pp, amid higher vulnerability of certain sectors.