Makroekonomia

Governors of both the CNB and NBP struck a hawkish tone at their press conferences, signaling that the next move could be a rate hike. This is still not our base-case scenario.

Poland likely saw a milder-than-feared slowdown in 1q26, with GDP growth around 3.4% y/y, as March activity data rebounded strongly after weather-related disruptions earlier in the year.

China’s export push into Europe is lowering inflation and raising competition. Poland appears to be more resilient to the Chinese competition than other CEE economies. he Tisza Party decisively won the parliamentary elections in Hungary, securing a constitutional majority. V.Orban’s Fidesz party won 55 seats, marking the loss of power after 16 years.

Hungary heads into a pivotal parliamentary election this Sunday, with the real possibility of ending V.Orban’s 16-year rule and reshaping the country’s geopolitical orientation. Menawhile both the NBP and the NBR kept policy rates unchanged.

We present a sneak peek of changes to the assumptions for the macroeconomic scenario for Poland, stemming from the implications of the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, we announce a full update on the Polish economy, which will be published next week.