Makroekonomia

We present a summary of updated quarterly forecasts with a slight downward revision to 2025 growth outlook, and for the first time we present our expectations for 2026.

A looming 50% US tariff on EU imports threatens to ignite a transatlantic trade war, with stark economic consequences for Europe, moderate fallout for CEE, and a chilling effect on global growth forecasts.

K.Nawrocki, a candidate backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), won Poland’s presidential election. The Czech government finalized a EUR 16.3bn agreement with Korea’s KHNP to build two new 2.1GW reactors at the Dukovany nuclear plant. The European Commission urged Romania to urgently reduce its elevated fiscal deficit.

K.Nawrocki, supported by Law and Justice (PiS), won Poland’s presidential election against R.Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition). Key presidential powers include the legislative veto, the appointment of the NBP Governor, and the nomination of 3 out of 9 members of the Monetary Policy Council. Potential power struggle between the President and the government may delay structural reforms until next parliamentary elections in 2027. Political division could temporarily raise risk premiums in financial markets.

CPI inflation in Poland eased to 4.1% y/y in May, and a newly approved lower gas tariff is expected to push inflation back within the NBP’s target band by July. In Hungary, the central bank held rates steady due to persistent inflation risks and external uncertainty, making rate cuts unlikely before the end of 3q25.