Makroekonomia

Consumer confidence has significantly improved across CEE region since late 2022, driven by significant reduction of inflation and better economic outlook. Next week monetary policy will be in the spotlight. CNB will decide on interest rates on Thursday, followed by NBR’s Friday decision

Poland’s economy gained momentum in 2q25, driven by strong domestic demand, a rebound in industry and services, and improving investment activity. Despite external headwinds, growth accelerated, with our nowcast pointing to solid expansion in the second quarter.

In Romania, the opposition failed to pass a no-confidence vote submitted by the AUR party, following the government's adoption of a package of fiscal measures through an emergency procedure. As part of our special topic, we examine current inflation trends and present our forecast for the second half of the year.

According to the OECD sustaining economic growth globally, including in the CEE region, and preserving social cohesion will hinge on mobilising underutilised segments of labour force - particularly women, older workers, and migrants.

The MPC lowered interest rates by 25 bps to 5.00%. The decision came as a surprise to both markets and ourselves, particularly in light of recent statements by MPC members. Nonetheless, in our view, the move is broadly consistent with the evolving disinflationary backdrop. T