Makroekonomia

The IMF published the World Economic Outlook with forecasts including the CEE region. With regard to GDP growth, forecasts for Poland have not changed materially against the July update - GDP in 2025–26 will grow slightly above 3% (the fastest in Europe).

The MPC in Poland delivered a 25 bps rate cut last Wednesday. The tone of communication suggests an inclination toward yet another 25 bps cut in November.

Poland's Council of Ministers has adopted the draft Public Finance Sector Debt Management Strategy for 2026–2029. The projected GG sector deficit path assumes no material fiscal consolidation. Romania's Ministry of Finance revised the 2025 budget, widening the deficit to 8.4% of GDP from the initially planned 7.0%.

We have updated our medium-term forecasts, published in the latest Quarterly Report (available in Polish). We revised our GDP growth forecast for 2025 upwards, raised this year’s CPI inflation forecast slightly while lowering next year’s, and adjusted the interest rate path downwards. The fiscal deficit in the coming years is now expected to be higher than previously assumed, with the public debt trajectory also revised upwards. We assume that CPI inflation will reach around 3.0% y/y at the end of 2025 and will be close to the inflation target (2.5% y/y) at the end of 2026. We expect one further rate cut this year (to 4.50% at end-2025) and a total of 100bps in cuts next year.

The data for August sends mixed signals regarding investment activity. While industrial production results point to a recovery in investment, construction and assembly output indicates a decline in activity.