Makroekonomia

European Commission updated its forecasts for the EU countries. The Commission projects that all economies in the region, except for Czechia, will see an acceleration of GDP growth next year. Poland will remain the regional growth leader within the forecast horizon.

GDP growth in 3q25 accelerated to 3.7% y/y, ranking Poland among the best performers in the EU (EU avg: 1.6% y/y). Data are consistent with the scenario of GDP growth at 3.5% y/y in both 2025 and 2026. Czechia also did quite well, which was not the case for Romania and in particular Hungary.

October brought a deterioration of PMI in Czechia and Romania, amid its further improvement in Poland, however, indexes in all these economies remained in the contraction territory. The MPC delivered its fifth rate cut this year, lowering the NBP reference rate to 4.25%, while the new projection points to inflation nearing the 2.5% target by 2027.

In October CPI inflation once again surprised to the downside, falling to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in September. This result was not only below both market consensus and our expectations, but also lower than the projection presented by the NBP Governor at the October press conference, which had assumed an increase in inflation to 3.0% y/y.

Monthly economic activity data for September surprised on the upside prompting us to revise up our 3q25 growth estimate to 3.9%. After accounting for recent revisions to 1h25 data, we currently see no need to change our full-year growth forecast of 3.5%.