Makroekonomia

In 2026 investment is set to become an important engine of growth, helping to sustain – at a minimum – the pace achieved in 2025. With inflation across much of the region likely to hover near targets, further interest rate cuts are possible. The greatest challenge will be fiscal policy, but fiscal consolidation is unlikely to be widespread.

The individual components of the Polish economy are forming an increasingly harmonious major chord, radiating optimism. One - albeit loud - dissonance is the fiscal situation, where the effects of geopolitical turmoil are most clearly visible.

November inflation readings brought positive surprises in most of the CEE. The common source of the lower than expected inflation were food prices, while core inflation remains rather sticky. Recent comments by members of Poland’s MPC suggest that they see room for further interest rate cuts, though not necessarily as early as January. Both CNB and MNB are expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week.

Poland’s MPC delivered another 25bp cut in December, bringing the reference rate to 4.00%, and justified the move with better-than-expected inflation data and an improved outlook.

Economic activity data for October indicate that the start of 4q25 in the Polish economy was solid and exceeded expectations, while inflation developments in November proved better than expected.