Makroekonomia

January inflation prints showed a continuation of disinflation across most of the CEE region, although the details suggest that the implications for monetary policy are not clear-cut.

Both the CNB and the NBP kept interest rates unchanged at their February meetings, although the latter decision came as a mild surprise to us. In Poland, a rate cut is on the horizon as early as March; in Czechia, it appears only very faintly, at the earliest in 2h26.

GDP growth in the CEE region at the end of 2025 was driven primarily by consumption, much like over the year as a whole. The data were broadly in line with expectations, although the result for Hungary proved somewhat disappointing.

Production output rebounded strongly at year-end, with manufacturing posting solid growth and construction showing a modest recovery. The entire previous year in these sectors ultimately proved to be positive. Based on available data, we estimate GDP growth in 4q25 at around 3.8% y/y, implying full-year growth of approximately 3.5% y/y, in line with the baseline forecast.

This week, instead of the traditional CEE Macro Weekly, we encourage you to review our summary of the economic outlook for Poland for 2026, as well as in-depth special topics that either constitute key assumptions underlying our forecasts or represent significant risk factors to their realization.