Makroekonomia

The first consensus forecasts for CEE countries suggest that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East is viewed as clearly negative for the economic outlook. GDP growth projections have been revised slightly downward, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward.

Despite recent favourable inflation prints rising geopolitical tensions and commodity price risks are skewing the CEE macro outlook to the downside, delaying the timeline for monetary easing.

Poland's MPC cut interest rates by 25bps. One of the arguments for the cut was the new projection, in which inflation was clearly revised downward. Prolonged geopolitical uncertainty may delay the next rate cut, as suggested by comments from NBP's governor. The outbreak of war between the US/Israel and Iran and the potential permanent closure of the Strait of Hormuz increase stagflationary risks in CEE economies.

Romania's prime minister announced an administration reform bill that includes a range of measures aimed at restructuring the public sector. In addition Romanian government approved an economic stimulus package. The MNB cut rates by 25bp to 6.25%, citing favourable inflation trends and financial stability.

Economic activity data for Poland in January turned out weaker than expected. Employment data cast doubt on the forecast of a slight increase in employment for the whole of 2026.