Makroekonomia

Hawkish pressure in the CEE – The US and Israeli war with Iran shook the global economy, pushed up inflation and led to hawkish shifts at many central banks. In response to the deterioration in the inflation outlook, the ECB and CNB raised rates by 25bp. Other central banks in the CEE region remain in wait-and-see mode for now, but some might soon resume interest rate cuts.

CNB governor A.Michl said that a rate hike in June is a real possibility, prompting expectations of a 25 bps hike next week. On another front, an analysis shows that oil prices are not inherently positive or negative for currencies, while their impact depends on the underlying driver.

Sentiment and inflation expectations remain well contained. May ESI data suggests that pessimism remains contained and inflation expectations remain well anchored across the CEE region despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Middle East tensions have revived energy shock fears in CEE, though central banks still see room to keep rates stable. The key event next week will be the MNB’s decision-making meeting. We do not expect any change in interest rates.

The latest GDP data highlight a widening divergence in CEE region, with Poland sustaining a balanced expansion while Romania slips into technical recession.