Poland Macro Weekly: Waiting for the spring to come

Download report

TOP MACRO THEME(S):

• Waiting for the spring to come (p. 2) – as the first chills descended upon Poland and the winter is coming, there are more and more green shoots of upcoming NBP rate cuts in spring 2025.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

• CPI inflation rose to 4.9% y/y in September, in line with our estimate and slightly above market consensus (4.8% y/y). The rise from 4.3% y/y in August stems largely from the low base effect. We estimate that core inflation rose to 4.3% y/y from 3.7% y/y in August, driven partly by strong base effect, which includes, among other factors, the introduction of free medicines for children in September 2023, which then reduced prices in the health category by nearly 3%.
• Poland’s PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose in September to 48.6pts from 47.8pts in August. The September reading indicates the slowest rate of decline in activity in nearly a year. One of the more optimistic elements of the report is the near-complete stabilization of employment (following 27 months of job cuts).
• Minister of Finance, A.Domanski, informed that no decision has been made yet regarding the amendment of this year's budget, but the probability of such a move has increased. As a part of the self-amendments to the budget for next year, the government increased the reserve for counteracting natural disasters by PLN 2.2bn to PLN 3.2bn. A.Domanski also stated that the Ministry is working on potential changes to the bank levy. After the revision, it should not discourage banks from financing economic growth (likely meaning it should not burden new loans). However, the changes must remain neutral for budget.
• WIRON, WIRON+ and WRR indexes will not be included in further consultations conducted in the process of converting the reference benchmarks in Poland.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

• Calendar for the next week does not include any noteworthy local data/events.

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

• -6.7m – according to a fresh projection of Statistics Poland, the country’s population will decline by nearly 7 million by 2060 (from current 37.6 million).

Drukuj