Poland Macro Weekly: Uncertainty is a key

TOP MACRO THEME(S):

NBP rates stable throughout 2024? (p.2) - MPC meeting and message from NBP Governor at his press conference are a clear indication that NBP rates will stay unchanged throughout 2024.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

The state budget deficit at the end of 2023 reached PLN 85.6bn, somewhat less than the planned PLN 92bn. As expected, in line with seasonal pattern, the deficit significantly deepened in December as compared to November. In 2023 as a whole, state budget revenues rose by 7%, with the strongest rise seen in case of personal income tax (PLN 23.6bn or 34.6% y/y). In December alone, VAT revenues decreased by 35.5% y/y, and their full-year performance was by PLN 10bn worse than the updated plan adopted in mid-December 2023 (likely due to accelerated refunds, which would be positive for VAT revenues in 2024).
Fitch Ratings said that the rapid escalation in political tensions in Poland (between the government and the President) has increased risks to government effectiveness. According to the agency this could complicate fiscal consolidation efforts, delay receipt of EU funds and adversely affect market sentiment, particularly if it undermined the stability and functioning of key institutions. Fitch anticipated that the transfer of power after 8 years of PiS rule would bring challenges when it affirmed Poland’s sovereign rating at ‘A-’/Stable on November 10, 2023. However, the severity of confrontation has exceeded its expectations.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

We estimate that CPI inflation dropped to 3.8% y/y in January on energy deflation and weaker food price growth. The flash reading will be subject to some minor revision in March, when a new inflation basket is revealed.
According to our estimate, quarterly data will show GDP growth of 1.1% y/y in 4q23 (tentative full-year data implies 9-1.3% y/y) as stagnant consumption was outweighed by strong investment growth.
Balance of payments figures for December will likely show small monthly CA deficit and a full year surplus of 1.6% of GDP.

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

5.65% - PLN FRA6x9 rate, compared to 5.1% a month ago and current 3M Wibor at 5.86%.