Poland Macro Weekly: Forget rate cuts

TOP MACRO THEME(S):

NBP rate cuts becoming more distant (p. 2) – New NBP projection paints less rosy growth outlook (negative output gap until 2026) and shows lower core inflation path, which suggests some room for fine-tuning rate cuts. Meanwhile, the NBP Governor sounds more hawkish than ever, saying explicitly that rate cuts could be resumed in 2026 at the earliest. The divergence between evolution of the NBP projection and Governor’s rhetoric confirms that reaction function of the Polish central bank substantially changed after parliamentary election last year.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

Electricity and natural gas prices for households rose by 20% in July, adding 1.5pp to CPI inflation in 2h24. At the same time the Min. of Climate proposes to extend the current level of energy prices for households to 2025. If it is approved, it could reduce CPI inflation by 1pp in 2025. More on inflation outlook on p.2.
Poland’s manufacturing PMI remained at 45.0 in June. The survey showed continued declines in output, new orders, exports and employment. Companies pointed to falling export sales, with demand from Germany seen as the main source of weakness. Expectations for the next 12 months remained positive.
The registered unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in June, according to preliminary estimate, in line with our forecast.
The European Commission accepted the revision of the Polish Recovery and Resilience Plan. The changes made will not affect the overall value of the funds available to Poland (EUR 59.8bn) but the structure of spending. They must be accepted by EU member states within 4 weeks.
Housing prices in Poland (stats office data) rose by 18% y/y in 1q24, the most in over 10 years. Increases were recorded both on the primary market (19.6% y/y) and the secondary market (16.4% y/y).

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Polish macroeconomic calendar for the next week is empty giving some breathing space to weary macroeconomists longing for vacation.

NUMBER OF THE WEEK: