Poland Macro Weekly: Better than expected start of 2q24

TOP MACRO THEME(S):

Better than expected start of 2q24 (p. 2) – Economic activity indicators for April turned out better than expected, supporting our view that GDP growth (y/y) in 2q24 will be almost twice as strong as in 1q24.

WHAT ELSE CAUGHT OUR EYE:

Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy informed that it is inclined to use a reference value for the minimum wage equal to 60% of the average wage. Ministry’s press office emphasized that the choice of the reference value does not imply that the minimum wage must be equal to it – instead it is supposed to be an anchor to strive for and compare the minimum wage to. Minimum wage in 2025 should be set according to the existing rules, which imply its increase by approx. 6%, at least.
The Sejm’s Speaker, Sz.Holownia, informed that he was sending the preliminary application for a Constitutional Tribunal for the Governor of the NBP to be processed by the Constitutional Accountability Committee. This means the formal commencement of the Sejm procedure in this matter.
The Ministry of Finance stated that members of the Fiscal Council, which should begin to operate in 2026, will be elected by various entities including the President of the Republic of Poland, Supreme Audit Office and the Ministry of Finance. Fiscal Council will be responsible for reviewing key budget documents for compliance with fiscal rules (also with respect to the UE rules) and assess macroeconomic forecasts.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

The key macroeconomic publication next week will be the flash estimate of CPI inflation in May, which should increase to approx. 2.6% y/y (2.4% y/y in April). It will be preceded by the unemployment rate figure for April.

NUMBER OF THE WEEK:

7.3% y/y – M3 money growth in April, higher than expected and stronger than in March (6.6% y/y), though its impact on inflation should be limited.